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*NOTE: Links from this index take
you to the top of the page where the reference is found. You may have to
scroll a few paragraphs to find what you're looking for.
ABC News, 231
Absolute change, 24-25
Accuracy factor, in election
polls, 242-244 ,
262 n.11
Achievement tests, 180
Acquiescence bias, in surveys,
126
Age, as variable, 130-31, 144-45, 146-
48, 151, 154-56
AS&R Master File, 200;
weighting for, 227
Aggregate data, 199-201 ,
204-5
AIDS, knowledge of, testing for,
168-70
Aiken, Howard, 79-80
Almeida, Donald B., 193
Alpha test, 161-62
American Soldier, The
(Stouffer), 165-66
Apportionment, census data for,
208-9
Archival records, analysis of,
182-83
Aregood, Rich, 191
ASCII, 96, 100
AS&R Master File (FBI), 200
Atanasoff, John Vincent, 80
Atanasoff-Berry Computer, 80
Atlanta Constitution, 19 ,
212-13
Audit Bureau of Circulations
(ABC), 33
Average. See
Mean
Babbage, Charles, 79-80
Balanced questions, in surveys,
124-25
Ballot, secret: in election polls,
225, 234;
as
voting method, 245-46
Bandwagon effect, of media polls,
251
Barlett, Donald L., 193, 196
Base: in data-analysis percentages,
21-
24, 26, 140;
use
in CPI calculations, 30
Baseline, use in measuring, 40-41
BASIC,
82, 108-9, 111
Batch computing, 84
Batten, James K., 6
Baudot code, 97
Berkeley arrestees, study of,
156-58, 166-67
Berry, Clifford E., 80
Bias, in sampling, 114-15, 126, 217-18
Bibliographic databases, 188
Binary system, 41, 79-81, 82, 96
Bishop, George, 122
Black, Gordon, 230, 245, 252
Blacks, surveys of, 115, 143
Bok, Derek, 1
Bok, Sissela, 171
Boolean logic, 188-90
Boorstin, Daniel, 262
n.23
Brack, Andrew, 37-38
Breslin, Jimmy, 4
Bulletin boards, computer, 187, 192
Bumper sticker experiment, 175, 178-79
Butterfield, Herbert, 12
Calculators, use for, 111
Callbacks, telephone, 134-35, 216-17, 230
Campbell, Donald T., 171-72, 179, 182-83
Campbell's demons, 180-82, 183
Carolina Poll (1988), 223-24, 226, 227, 228
Categorical (Nominal) measurement,
62
CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone
Interviewing), 134
Causation,
40, ;
53-55, 164, 165;
assumption in Miami Herald survey, 149-50, 158;
tested in field experiments, 170-75
CBS News, 144-45;
election
polls,
220-
21, 229, 230-31
CD-ROM,
187, 206, 209
CENDATA (Census Bureau), 206
Census,
33, 63-69, 199-200, 222, 227;
data compared with poll samples, 214-
15; geographic structure, 206-8;
use in sampling techniques, 110-14
Census Bureau, 77, 239 ;
access to data, 197, 203-13;
on-line information service, 206
Central tendency, 51-57, 83
Chi-square,
57-60, 67-69, 91, 147
Chronbach's Alpha test, 161-62
Circulation, newspaper, 7, 31-32, 37-38, 44, 49-50;
SPSS analysis, 86-91
Cluster methods, 109-10, 113-14
COBOL,
82
Cohn, Victor, 56
Coincidence, as alternate inference,
56-
61
Coin flipping, probability, 69-70
Comparisons, use in reporting
survey results, 143-45
Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing
(CATI), 134
Computers,
3, 7, 19, 84-100, 167, 186-87;
communication
among, 96-97, 100, 186;
history of, 77-84;
index construction, 160-62;
languages, 82-
83; mainframe, 77, 83, 84-85, 97-99;
off-line retrieval, 193-94;
percentage analysis, 142;
personal
(PCs), 83, 84, 99-100, 111, 205-6;
research of public databases, 192, 238-40;
SAS and SPSS programs, 93-94;
telephone interviewing, 134. See
also Databases
Conant, James Bryant, 1
Confidence level, in sampling,
72-75
Consensus formation, 246-47, 253
Consumer Price Index (CPI), 27-30, 34, 36
Content analysis, 182, 190-91
Contingency tables, 163
Continuous (Interval) measurement,
62-63
Control groups, in field experiments,
172-73, 175-80, 181, 184-85
Control (Test factor), 151
Converse, Philip, 121
Cook, Thomas D., 171-72, 181
Corless, Inge, 168-70
Correlation coefficients, 33, 65-67, 161, 163
Correlation matrix, 160-64
Couch, Arthur S., 257 n.4
Covariance,
40, 53, 65
Cranberg, Lawrence, 5-7
Crespi, Irving, 216, 220, 223, 226, 228
Cross-tabulation,
54-56, 196, 204, 205;
from survey question responses, 124-
25; three-way, 145-48
Curve fitting, of trend data,
33
Dade County, Fla., school insurance
story as theoretical model, 15-17
Dallas Morning News ,
19
Data: categorical, 20-21, 67-69;
collection,
5, 8, 132-38;
continuous, 20-38;
convoluted, 34;
non-attitudes as, 121-22;
storage, 8, 79, 97-100
Data analysis, 5, 8, 19, 20-38;
of surveys, 138, 139-67;
use of database system, 85-94
Databases,
186-213;
complex structures,
196-97;
content analysis, 190-91;
dirty-data problem, 201-3;
programs, 85-96;
public records in, 238-40
Data processing, 8-10
Data-Text, 91, 193,
257 n.4
dBase (computer program), 195-96
DCB (data control block), 98-99
Decimal point, importance of,
22-23
Dedman, Bill, 212-13
Delli Carpini, Michael X., 249
Democracy: effect of election
polls on, 245-46, 253;
pluralism and truth,
14
Democratic Party, 216, 223,
229
Demographics: of poll's samples,
214-15, 221;
survey questions on, 130-32
Dennis, Everette, E., x
Deprivation survey, relative,
165-66
Detrending, 28-38
Detroit Free Press : early-projection
voting system, 232-35;
study on riot participants, 18, 53-56, 114, 129, 162-63
Deviation, 59, 71. See
also Standard deviation
Dillman, Don A., 133, 136
Dispositions, relation to properties
and behavior, 152-56
Distribution, statistical, 43, 47-51, 73
Don't knows. See Non-attitudes
Dow Jones Industrial Average,
23-26
Draft, military (Vietnam era),
attempt at randomization, 184-85, 212
EBCDIC (Extended Binary-Coded
Decimal Interchange Code), 96
Economics, first law of, 105-6
Education,
183, 211, 212;
compared with income, 159, 163;
as variable, 131, 144-45, 150, 151-52, 158
Elections, 212, 214;
effect of polls on outcome, 244-53;
models for election- night turnouts,
230-35.
See also
Voting
Election surveys, 142, 214-35, 241-53;
complaints against, 242-46;
election- night projections, 230-35;
1948, 229;
1968, 244-45;
1976, 145-46;
1988, 242,
243, 262 n.11. See also
Exit polls
ENIAC, 80-81
EOF (end of file) marker, 98
EPA (Enviromental Protection
Agency), database on toxic waste, 202-3
Equal probability rule, in sampling,
102,
103-4, 109,
113
Error margin, 72,
219
Evaluation research, 183-85
Exit polls, 125,
230, 234-35,
237, 249,
250
Face-to-face interviews. See
Personal interviews
Factor analysis, 162-63,
FBI Uniform Crime Reports, 200
Federal Information Processing
Standard code, 197
Felgenhauer, Neil, x
Field experiments, 168-85;
designing, 172-75;
training for, 170-71
Fields, in SPSS, 87 ;
Files, 94-96,
196-97;
nonrectangular, 94-96,
197-98;
rectangular, 94,
196, 198;
SAS management of, 92-93
Files, hierarchical (nested),
94-96,
198-99,
200; census
files as, 206-8;
EPA databases as, 200
First Amendment, 14 ,
235
Fisher, Carl, 57-60
FORTRAN, 82,
83, 91
Framework (software), 213
Frederickson, Ted, ix-x
Frequencies, 88-89, 118-19, 195
Gallop, George, 116, 218, 240, 242
Gallop Poll, 123, 242, 243,
262 n.11; pre-election polls, 219-24, 225-26, 230, 252
Gannett Center for Media Studies,
193
Gender gap, in voting behavior,
216
General linear model (GLM), 37-38, 65
General Social Survey, 142-43
Germond, Jack, 243
Gollin, Albert E., 117, 244
Government Printing Office, 191
Greene, Juanita, 115, 155, 212
Harris Survey, 123, 230, 242, 243,
262 n.11
Harvard University, 79-80
Hawthorne effect, 175-77, 179, 183
Hierarchical files. See
Files, hierarchical
Hierarchy, geographical, use
in census data, 207-8
Hispanic population, census data
on, 209-10
Histogram, 44-49
Historical Statistics of the
United States, 30
Hollerith, Herman, 77, 79
Holmes, Oliver Wendell," 14
Honeywell, Inc., 80
Hopper, Grace Murray, 80, 81-82
Household sampling, 114-15, 216;
personal interviews, 109-10;
telephone surveys, 103-4, 106-7, 226-27
Housing situation, relationship
to disposition toward violence, 153-56
Hypothesis, 11, 15-17 ,
56;
testing, 17-19 ,
53, 165, 170-75
IBM, 78-79, 81, 83;
mainframe computers, 96-99;
7090, 81, 91, 193;
360,
194
Income, 52-53, 131, 158, 211;
compared with education, 159, 163
Index construction, 28, 124, 125, 159-67
Index numbers, use in statistical
analysis, 34, 36-37
Inflation: adjusting for, 27-30;
effect on Dow Jones Average, 25
Instrumentation, and experimental
validity, 181
Intelligence, 39;
use of histogram to plot, 44-45
Interest groups, 122, 240-41
Interpretation, after-the-fact,
165-67
Interval (Continuous) measurement,
62-63
Intuitive sense, use in statistics,
40
Jackson, John E., 249
Jacquard loom, use of punched
cards, 79
Jaspin, Elliot, 192-93, 194-95, 237
Job Control Language (JCL), 83, 97, 98
John Henry effect, 181
Johnson, Maria Miro, 237
Johnson, Michael L., x
Journalism programs/schools, 1-2 5
Journalists, 1-2 ;
assumptions in survey questioning, 122-23;
income comparisons, 28-30
Kennedy, George, 115
King, Martin Luther, 18-19 ,
179-80
Kish, Leslie, 113
Kiska, Tom, 233-34
Knopes, Carol, 202
Kotzbauer, Bob, 76-77, 78
Labor Statistics Bureau, 27-28, 30, 36
Lawrence, David, 10
Leaners, in polls, 223, 225-26, 230, 252
Lewis, I. A. (Bud), 4
Lippmann, Walter, 9
Literary Digest, 217-18, 242
Local area network (LAN), 97
Logic circuits (in computers),
80-81
Luedtke, Kurt, 233
McIntosh, Shawn, 201
McReynolds, Louise, 194
McReynolds, Louise, 194
Maidenberg, Mike, 116, 232-34
Maidenburg, Ben, 76
Mail and Telephone Surveys:
The Total Design Method (Dillman), 133, 136
Mail surveys, 116-17, 132, 136-38
Mani pulation, in field experiments,
174-75
Marginals, 57, 58, 118-19, 139-44, 146-
48
"Market Basket," 27-28
Mark I, 79-80, 81-82
Mean(s) (Average[s]), 34, 83, 88, 89,
257 n.3; comparison of, 60, 196;
as measure of central tendency,
41, 51-
53; regression towards the, 180-81;
use
in measuring variance,
42-45
Median(s), 34, 51-53
Memory (computer term), 80, 84
Menu, computer, 84, 93
Miami Herald : pre-riot
poll, 19 ,
146-55, 158, 179-80;
study on real estate values, 212
Michigan Survey Research Center,
143
Middle-category problem, 123-24
Milgram, Stanley, 117
Militancy, as variable: study
of, 147- 53, 158, 159, 163
Mill, John Stuart, 171
Milwaukee Journal, 239
Minority status, as a dichotomous
variable, 41
Mixed-mode surveys, 137-38
Mode, as measure of central tendency,
51-53
Models, 9-11 ,
33, 37-38, 226;
reality testing, 12-19
Modems, 97, 100, 186-87, 192
Moore, Tom, 85
Morin, Rich, 4 ,
194
Morris, Dwight, 213
Mortality (Selective retention),
of subjects in experiments, 181, 183-84
Muller, J. H., 79
Name recognition, in polls, 244-45
National Opinion Research Center,
128-29
NBC News, 249-50
Neft, David, 231
Negative correlation, 65
Nested files. See
Files,
hierarchical
Newspaper Advertising Bureau,
130
Newspapers: credibility studies,
10-11 ;
election-night projections, 230, 232-34;
market research, 36 .
See
also Circulation, newspaper; newspapers by name
New York Times, 235, 252
Nexis News Plus, 190
Nie, Norman, 91
Nieman program (Harvard), 2
No answers (in surveys), 139-42. See
also Refusals
Nominal (Categorical) measurement,
62
Non-attitudes (in surveys), 121, 139-42, 149
Nonreactive (Oddball) measurements,
in field experiments, 182-83
Nonvoters: in election poll samples,
218, 219-23,
229;
undecided as, 226
Norman, Jim, 4
Norusis, Marija, 93
Numbers, comparison of, 20-21
Oddball (Nonreactive) measurements,
in field experiments, 182-83
Off-line retrieval, of database
records, 187-88, 190, 192-96, 204
One-night polls, dangers of,
229-30
On-line retrieval, of database
records, 187, 188-90, 191-92
Open-ended questions, in survey
research, 120-21
Openness, in reality testing,
13, 17
Operationalization, in reality
testing, 13, 16 18
Order effect, in surveys, 126-27;
in election polls, 223-24
OS/2 (computer operating system),
99
Oversampling, 102
Panagakis, Nick, 226
Paradox (computer program), 137, 195
Parsimony, in reality testing,
13-14
Partial correlation coefficient,
163
Parties Excluded from Federal
Procurement (database), 192
Passivity, journalistic, 3-4, 12
Paul, Nora M., 186
Payne, Stanley, 126
PC-File (computer program), 137,
195
PCs. See
Computers: personal
Percentages, 21-27, 54-56, 94, 147;
analysis of, 140-42
Perceptual structures, as theoretical
models for data, 9-10
Perry, Paul, 220, 225-26
Personal interviews, 127-29, 132-33, 242;
election polls, 218, 222, 225
Pettigrew, Thomas, 179
Phillips, Bill, 168
Player piano, 79
Polyani, Michael, 17
Population growth, data on, 30-33
Population sampling, 102, 110
Positive correlation, 65
Possibility samples, 117
Powers, James, 78
Precincts, as samples in election
projections, 231, 232-33, 234
Precision journalism: defined,
2-3 ,
6-7
Press, freedom of the, 238
Presser, Stanley, 121-22, 123, 125-27
Pretest-posttest design, , 176, 178
Price, H. Douglas, 8
Primacy effect, 126, 224
Primary elections, 248, 251
Privacy, invasion of, 237-40
Privacy Act of 1974, 239
Probability, 41, 57, 58, 60-61, 70;
in sampling,
102, 103-4, 109, 113
Probability sampling, 69-73, 135-36, 216
Production rates, factory, experiment
on, 175-77, 179
Properties, relation to dispositions,
152-56
Psychological testing, 125
Public access, databases created
for, 187, 188-89
Public Law 94-171, 209
Public opinion, defining, 240-41
Public opinion polls, 20-21,
101, 139-67,
191, 241-53
Public records, 198;
off-line
retrieval, 187-88,
192-96
Public-use sample, of census
data, 205
Punched cards, 77-78, 84
"Pygmalion effect," 175
Quantitative analysis, of variance,
39
Quantitative information, in
survey research, 120
Question asking, 118-32;
in
election polls, 219-21, 223-24, 235
Quota sampling, 135-36,
216
Race relations, 19 ,
102
Race riots: theories on, 17-19 .
See
also Detroit Free Press; Miami Herald
Radicals, student: follow-up
study, 156-58,
166-67
Random access memory (RAM), 96
Random deviation, 59
Random digit dialing (RDD), 107-9,
137
Random error, 33
Random selection, 104, 110-12, 117, 184-85
Rate: conversion of raw numbers
into, 21-23;
use
of percentage base, 56
Ratio, 42, 62-63
Raw frequencies, 118-19
Reality testing, of theoretical
models, 12-19
Recency effect, in surveys, 126,
223-24
Record matching, in databases,
195
Records, computer, 86-87,
94-96, 238.
See
also Files
Reference point, use in measuring
variance, 42-45
Referendum model, in survey research,
119-20, 122,
124, 240-41
Refusals (in surveys): as error
source, 217-18, 222;
in
exit polls, 234-35.
See
also No
answers
Regression, statistical, 36-38,
66-67, 180-81
Republican Party, 216,
223, 229
Resentful demoralization, 181
Responses, survey, 123,
125-26, 133,
142, 230;
closed-end,
121;
order,
126-27; telephone,
105-6, 107
Robinson, John, 114
Roper Center of the University
of Connecticut, 191
Rosenberg, Morris, 146,
150-51, 152,
155, 165-66,
167
Rosenthal, Robert, 175
Rowen, James, 237-38,
239
Royster, Vermont, 3
Sampling, 3,
60, 69-75, 77, 101-17; for
additional census data, 210; demographic,
214; in
election polls, 216-23, 230, 234; in field experiments, 169; quota
and probability, 135-36. See also
Probability sampling
Sampling error, 33, 72-75, 117, 142; chi-square
as measuring, 59; in
election polls, 215, 216-23
Sanders, Larry, 202
SAS (Statistical Analysis System),
83, 86, 87, 97, 99, 196; compared
with SPSS, 91-94;
database research, 201, 202;
files,
197, 198-99, 201; interpreting
census data, 206, 211; percentage analysis, 142; program
for random digit dialing, 108-9; provision
for missing values, 94-95; weighting,
102, 227
Schuman, Howard, 118-19, 121-22, 123, 125-27
Scientific method, 5-7 ,
8 ,
165; 9-14 ;
rules for experimentation, 171-
72, 253
Selective retention (Mortality),
of subjects in experiments, 181, 183-84
Self-administered questionnaires
(SAQs), 125, 126, 127-30, 132
Sequential weighting, for election
polls, 227-28
Serendipity, 165-66
Shine, Neal, 233
Significance tests, 60-61, 67, 164-65. See
also Chi-square
Skewness, as distribution form,
47, 49
Skip interval (sampling technique),
110
Smoothing, of data, 34-35, 36, 44-45
Social class, as variable, 144-45
Socioeconomic status, as combined
variable, 159
Sperry Rand Corp., 80
Sperry Univac, 78
Spreadsheets, 85, 197
SPSS (Statistical Package for
the Social Sciences), 33, 83, 85-94, 97, 194, 196; compared
with SAS, 91-94;
and federal coding, 99; files,
198-99; index
construction, 161; interpreting
census data, 206; percentage
analysis, 142; provision for missing values,
94-95; weighting, 102,
227
Standard deviation, 43-46,
73, 83,
88,
89
Standard error, in sampling,
73-75
Standard Rate and Data Service,
33
Stanley, Julian, 179
Statistical Abstract of the
United States, 29-30
Statistical analysis, 39-75,
84,
196.
See
also SAS;
SPSS
Statistical tests, in index construction,
161-62
Status consistency, 159
Steele, James B., 193, 196
Stem and leaf chart, 49-51
STF (Summary Tape Files), of
census data, 210
Stouffer, Samuel, 165-66, 172-73, 177-78
Stratifying, in sampling, 114
Strentz, Herbert, x
Student t (T-test), 60
SuperCalc4 (computer program),
197
SYSTAT (computer program), 34
Tables, 148-51;
three-way,
151-56,
165,
167;
two-way,
167
Tabulator (punch card machine),
78
Tape drive, desktop, 97
Tapes, computer, 97-100,
193-94;
census
data on, 203-4,
205,
206,
208-9
Tasker, Fred, 194
Telephone surveys, 101,
103-9,
132,
134-35,
137-38;
bias
in sampling techniques, 114-15;
design
weights,
226-27;
as
election poll technique, 216-17,
218,
222,
225;
interviewer
training, 132-33;
responses,
125,
127-
29
Television: election predictions,
230-
31, 234-35,
237,
249,
252;
reporting
of Dow Jones Average, 25
Test factor (Control), 151
Testing effect, on participants,
176-77
"Times as," in percentage difference,
26-27
Times Mirror, 11
"Times more," in percentage difference,
26-27
Timing, in election polls, 229-30
Tocqueville, Alexis de, 240-41
Toxic waste, EPA database on,
202-3
Training: for experiments, 170-71;
for
surveys, 132-33
Trends, 28-38
Truncation, of percentages, 23-24
Truth, tentativeness of, in reality
testing, 13
TSO (time-sharing option), 84
T-test (Student t), 60
Tukey, John W., 34,
47,
49-51
Undecided: in election polls,
224-26,
230,
252.
See
also Non-attitudes
Underage drinking, field research
on, 170-71,
173-74
Uniform Crime Reports, 201-2,
204
Urban, Christine, 7
USA Today, 7-8 ,
84,
97,
116,
142,
230;
analysis
procedures, 63-69;
1988
final election poll, 252,
262
n.25; reading of EPA databases, 202-3; survey
question on age, 130-31;
television
screening survey, 127,
137-38
Validity, 133,
142
Values: expected, 41,
57-58;
missing
in databases, 94-95;
observed,
57-58
Variable(s), 41,
53-56,
144-63,
174,
176;
in
AS&R Master File, 200-201;
binary/dichotomous,
41;
continuous,
42-51,
61-69,
127-29,
160-61;
creating
new from old, 159-64;
in
cross-tabulation percents, 54-56;
dependent,
153-56,
163;
independent,
124-25,
156-58,
163;
in
Miami
Herald survey, 147,
149;
recognition
by SAS and SPSS, 87-
90; as suppressors or distorters, 146-
53; weighting in sampling,
102;
in
Wyoming census case, 64-65
Variance, 39-40,
56-61,
72-73,
83;
measuring
methods, 40-75
Venn diagrams, 188-90
Voting: methods, 245-46;
tactics
on basis of poll information, 248-51,
262
n.19; turnout projections, 231-32. See
also Elections
Vu-Text Service, 187,
188-89,
191
Wallace, Julia D., 19
Wall Street Journal, 23
Washington Post, 212
Wattenberg, Ben, x
Weaver, David H., 28-30
Webb, Eugene J., 182-83
Weighting, 102,
106-7,
115;
in
election polls, 220,
222,
226-28
Wilhoit, G. Cleveland, 28-30
Wolfe, Tom, 4
Women's movement, effect on voting
behavior, 216
Word processing, 76,
84,
85-86,
100
WYLBUR (computer editing system),
84
Wyoming, census data analysis,
63-69
XEDIT (computer editing system),
84
Yankelovich, Daniel, 144-45
Z-scores, 38
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